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Miguel Hernan, D.P.H., M.D.

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Overview
My research is focused on methodology for causal inference, including comparative effectiveness of policy and clinical interventions.

In an ideal world, all policy and clinical decisions would be based on the findings of randomized experiments. For example, public health recommendations to avoid saturated fat or medical prescription of a particular painkiller would be based on the findings of long-term studies that compared the effectiveness of several randomly assigned interventions in large groups of people from the target population that adhered to the study interventions. Unfortunately, such randomized experiments are often unethical, impractical, or simply too lengthy for timely decisions.

My collaborators and I combine observational data, mostly untestable assumptions, and statistical methods to emulate hypothetical randomized experiments. We emphasize the need to formulate well defined causal questions, and use analytic approaches whose validity does not require assumptions that conflict with current subject-matter knowledge. For example, in settings in which experts suspect the presence of time-dependent confounders affected by prior treatment, we do not use adjustment methods (e.g., conventional regression analysis) that require the absence of such confounders.

While causal inferences from observational data are always risky, an appropriate analysis of observational studies often results in the best available evidence for policy or clinical decision-making. At the very least, the findings from well designed and properly analyzed observational studies may guide the design of future randomized experiments.

Our applied work is focused on optimal use of antiretroviral therapy in persons infected with HIV, lifestyle and pharmacological interventions to reduce the incidence of cardiovascular disease, and the effects of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents among dialysis patients.

Research
The research activities and funding listed below are automatically derived from NIH ExPORTER and other sources, which might result in incorrect or missing items. Faculty can login to make corrections and additions.
  1. P50MH115846 (ONGUR, DOST) May 15, 2019 - Mar 31, 2023
    NIH/NIMH
    Laboratory for Early Psychosis Research (LEAP)
    Role: Co-Principal Investigator
  2. R01HD088393 (HSU, JOHN, MD, MBA, MSCE) Sep 2, 2017 - May 31, 2022
    NIH/NICHD
    Long-term Impact of Fertility Treatment Study
    Role: Co-Principal Investigator
  3. R01AI102634 (HERNAN, MIGUEL) Aug 9, 2012 - May 31, 2023
    NIH/NIAID
    Dynamic strategies for the clinical management of HIV disease
    Role: Principal Investigator
  4. R37AI102634 (HERNAN, MIGUEL) Aug 9, 2012 - May 31, 2023
    NIH/NIAID
    Dynamic Strategies for the clinical management of HIV disease
    Role: Principal Investigator
  5. R56AI102634 (HERNAN, MIGUEL) Aug 9, 2012 - Dec 31, 2012
    NIH/NIAID
    Dynamic Strategies for the clinical management of HIV disease
    Role: Principal Investigator

Bibliographic
Publications listed below are automatically derived from MEDLINE/PubMed and other sources, which might result in incorrect or missing publications. Faculty can login to make corrections and additions.
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PMC Citations indicate the number of times the publication was cited by articles in PubMed Central, and the Altmetric score represents citations in news articles and social media. (Note that publications are often cited in additional ways that are not shown here.) Fields are based on how the National Library of Medicine (NLM) classifies the publication's journal and might not represent the specific topic of the publication. Translation tags are based on the publication type and the MeSH terms NLM assigns to the publication. Some publications (especially newer ones and publications not in PubMed) might not yet be assigned Field or Translation tags.) Click a Field or Translation tag to filter the publications.
  1. Martinez de Salazar P, Gomez-Barroso D, Pampaka D, Gil JM, Penalver B, Fernandez-Escobar C, Lipsitch M, Larrauri A, Goldstein E, Hernan M. Lockdown measures and relative changes in the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain. medRxiv. 2020 Jul 02. PMID: 32637975.
    Citations:    
  2. Emilsson L, García-Albéniz X, Hernan MA. Association of Statin Use With Overall and Cancer Survival-Reply. JAMA Oncol. 2018 07 01; 4(7):1016-1017. PMID: 29800046.
    Citations:    Fields:    
  3. Huitfeldt A, Hernan MA, Kalager M, Robins JM. Comparative Effectiveness Research Using Observational Data: Active Comparators to Emulate Target Trials with Inactive Comparators. EGEMS (Wash DC). 2016; 4(1):1234. PMID: 27891526.
    Citations:    
  4. Beardsley J, Le T. Antiretroviral penetration into the CNS and incidence of AIDS-defining neurologic conditions. Neurology. 2015 Feb 10; 84(6):632. PMID: 25666633.
    Citations: 1     Fields:    Translation:Humans
  5. Caniglia EC, Hernan MA. Author response. Neurology. 2015 Feb 10; 84(6):632-3. PMID: 25811065.
    Citations:    Fields:    Translation:Humans
  6. Young JG, Hernan MA, Robins JM. Identification, estimation and approximation of risk under interventions that depend on the natural value of treatment using observational data. Epidemiol Methods. 2014 Dec; 3(1):1-19. PMID: 25866704.
    Citations: 6     
  7. Danaei G, Tavakkoli M, Hernán MA. Bias in observational studies of prevalent users: lessons for comparative effectiveness research from a meta-analysis of statins. Am J Epidemiol. 2012 Feb 15; 175(4):250-62. PMID: 22223710.
    Citations: 44     Fields:    Translation:HumansPHPublic Health
  8. Danaei G, Rodríguez LA, Cantero OF, Logan R, Hernán MA. Observational data for comparative effectiveness research: an emulation of randomised trials of statins and primary prevention of coronary heart disease. Stat Methods Med Res. 2013 Feb; 22(1):70-96. PMID: 22016461.
    Citations: 28     Fields:    Translation:Humans
  9. Hernán MA, Hernández-Díaz S. Beyond the intention-to-treat in comparative effectiveness research. Clin Trials. 2012 Feb; 9(1):48-55. PMID: 21948059.
    Citations: 56     Fields:    
  10. Hernán MA, Lipsitch M. Oseltamivir and risk of lower respiratory tract complications in patients with flu symptoms: a meta-analysis of eleven randomized clinical trials. Clin Infect Dis. 2011 Aug 01; 53(3):277-9. PMID: 21677258.
    Citations: 26     Fields:    Translation:Humans
  11. Cain LE, Logan R, Robins JM, Sterne JA, Sabin C, Bansi L, Justice A, Goulet J, van Sighem A, de Wolf F, Bucher HC, von Wyl V, Esteve A, Casabona J, del Amo J, Moreno S, Seng R, Meyer L, Perez-Hoyos S, Muga R, Lodi S, Lanoy E, Costagliola D, Hernan MA. When to initiate combined antiretroviral therapy to reduce mortality and AIDS-defining illness in HIV-infected persons in developed countries: an observational study. Ann Intern Med. 2011 Apr 19; 154(8):509-15. PMID: 21502648.
    Citations: 76     Fields:    Translation:Humans
  12. Hernán MA, Clayton D, Keiding N. The Simpson's paradox unraveled. Int J Epidemiol. 2011 Jun; 40(3):780-5. PMID: 21454324.
    Citations: 25     Fields:    Translation:Humans
  13. Ray M, Logan R, Sterne JA, Hernández-Díaz S, Robins JM, Sabin C, Bansi L, van Sighem A, de Wolf F, Costagliola D, Lanoy E, Bucher HC, von Wyl V, Esteve A, Casbona J, del Amo J, Moreno S, Justice A, Goulet J, Lodi S, Phillips A, Seng R, Meyer L, Pérez-Hoyos S, García de Olalla P, Hernán MA. The effect of combined antiretroviral therapy on the overall mortality of HIV-infected individuals. AIDS. 2010 Jan 02; 24(1):123-37. PMID: 19770621.
    Citations: 129     Fields:    Translation:HumansCells
  14. Hernán MA, Alonso A, Logan R, Grodstein F, Michels KB, Willett WC, Manson JE, Robins JM. Observational studies analyzed like randomized experiments: an application to postmenopausal hormone therapy and coronary heart disease. Epidemiology. 2008 Nov; 19(6):766-79. PMID: 18854702.
    Citations: 144     Fields:    Translation:Humans
  15. Hernán MA, Jick SS, Olek MJ, Jick H. Recombinant hepatitis B vaccine and the risk of multiple sclerosis: a prospective study. Neurology. 2004 Sep 14; 63(5):838-42. PMID: 15365133.
    Citations: 23     Fields:    Translation:HumansPHPublic Health
  16. Hernán MA, Hernández-Díaz S, Robins JM. A structural approach to selection bias. Epidemiology. 2004 Sep; 15(5):615-25. PMID: 15308962.
    Citations: 479     Fields:    Translation:HumansPHPublic Health
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Funded by the NIH National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences through its Clinical and Translational Science Awards Program, grant number UL1TR002541.