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Ozge Karanfil, Ph.D.

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Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, BostonYerby Postdoctoral Fellow09/2018Global Health Systems
MIT Sloan School of Management, CambridgePhD09/2016Management
McGill University, Montreal/ CanadaMS11/2007Physiology
Bogazici University, IstanbulMSc9/2005Industrial Engineering
2020 - 2023
2232 International Fellowship for Outstanding Researchers
Koç -Harvard Fellowship at CMES, Faculty of Arts and Sciences
2016 - 2018
Yerby Fellowship
Lupina Young Researchers Award
Ida M. Green Fellowship
2010 - 2016
Doctoral Program Fellowship
Dana Meadows Award
Alma Mater Student Research Grant
PhD Scholarship
Best Undergraduate Student Paper
Among Top 200 student
Among Top 100 student

I am a systems scientist aiming to produce policy-relevant research by integrating management, systems and health sciences with a strong emphasis on data-driven analysis and modeling. I have BSc and MSc degrees in Industrial Engineering from Bogazici University, an MSc in Physiology from McGill University, and completed my PhD at MIT Sloan School of Management, System Dynamics Research Group. With a background in industrial engineering, management and health sciences, I am drawn to systemic problems of chronic nature, which encompass typical constraints and approaches with important managerial implications for the societal domain, coming from medical or non-medical contexts. My training is multi-disciplinary, and I have both collaborated and published with experts in management, systems sciences, health sciences, and engineering to solve complex managerial problems with important policy implications for the societal domain. My current projects at HSPH include dynamic modeling of chronic and cardiovascular diseases for Malaysia; obesity and diabetes in the Middle East; global risk factors for hypercholesterolemia; and health systems research using complex systems methodologies, such as system dynamics, agent-based, and network sciences. My research experience and interests can be summarized in three major, complementary areas:
i) Dynamic modeling for policy analysis (public health, medicine, environment, sustainability, or any other complex system problem)
ii) Specific application areas in health policy and management as an overarching theme at various levels (micro, mezzo, macro), relevant to clinical/public health research and management (such as evidence-based guideline formation, cancer screening, chronic and cardiovascular disease management, disease biomarkers, physiologically oriented disease modeling, NCDs, cardiovascular diseases and obesity)
iii) The underlying theoretical and empirical methods to cultivate research in the first two domains

One of my main lines of research is the investigation of the universal problem of evidence-based development of sound and reliable clinical practice guidelines. The theory and resulting models I build are grounded in empirical evidence-base and use a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods and data, a dynamic modeling approach to complex systems, statistical data analysis, and other decision-analysis tools to explain long-term trends in population screening and related problems within the context of developed countries. I have collected evidence for significant variations in screening trends in developed countries, and have been working on building novel models and policy decision support tools to inform and complement evidence-based clinical practice guidelines (CPGs).

Please contact me for possible collaborations and available positions in my research group.
Email: okaranfil@ku.edu.tr and karanfil@hsph.harvard.edu

Publications listed below are automatically derived from MEDLINE/PubMed and other sources, which might result in incorrect or missing publications. Faculty can login to make corrections and additions.
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PMC Citations indicate the number of times the publication was cited by articles in PubMed Central, and the Altmetric score represents citations in news articles and social media. (Note that publications are often cited in additional ways that are not shown here.) Fields are based on how the National Library of Medicine (NLM) classifies the publication's journal and might not represent the specific topic of the publication. Translation tags are based on the publication type and the MeSH terms NLM assigns to the publication. Some publications (especially newer ones and publications not in PubMed) might not yet be assigned Field or Translation tags.) Click a Field or Translation tag to filter the publications.
  1. Ozge Karanfil, John Sterman. “Saving lives or harming the healthy?” Overuse and fluctuations in routine medical screening. System Dynamics Review. 2020. View Publication.
  2. Karanfil, O. The Making of Practice Guidelines: Endogenous Dynamics of Policy Formation in Population Screening. 2019; (1):18822. View Publication.
  3. Verguet S, Feldhaus I, Jiang Kwete X, Aqil A, Atun R, Bishai D, Cecchini M, Guerra Junior AA, Habtemariam MK, Jbaily A, Karanfil O, Kruk ME, Haneuse S, Norheim OF, Smith PC, Tolla MT, Zewdu S, Bump J. Health system modelling research: towards a whole-health-system perspective for identifying good value for money investments in health system strengthening. BMJ Glob Health. 2019; 4(2):e001311. PMID: 31139448.
    Citations: 4     
  4. Özge Karanfil . Why clinical practice guidelines shift over time: a dynamic model with application to prostate cancer screening. 2016. View Publication.
  5. Karanfil O, Sterman J.D. Implementation Science. A Dynamic Model for Health Screening: Misperceptions, Feedback and Long Term Trends in Screening Mammography. 2015; 1(10):A50.
  6. Karanfil, Özge; Sterman, John D. Developing a Dynamic Model for Breast Cancer Screening: Misperceptions and Feedback in Screening Mammography Debate: Anatomy of a Medical Decision. 2014; 2512-2539.
  7. Abdel-Hamid T, Ankel F, Battle-Fisher M, Gibson B, Gonzalez-Parra G, Jalali M, Kaipainen K, Kalupahana N, Karanfil O, Marathe A, Martinson B, McKelvey K, Sarbadhikari SN, Pintauro S, Poucheret P, Pronk N, Qian Y, Sazonov E, Van Oorschot K, Venkitasubramanian A, Murphy P. Public and health professionals' misconceptions about the dynamics of body weight gain/loss. Syst Dyn Rev. 2014 January-June; 30(1-2):58-74. PMID: 25620843.
    Citations: 4     
  8. Malhi L, Karanfil O, Merth T, Acheson M, Palmer A, Finegood DT. Places to Intervene to Make Complex Food Systems More Healthy, Green, Fair, and Affordable. J Hunger Environ Nutr. 2009 Jul; 4(3-4):466-476. PMID: 23173029.
    Citations: 9     
  9. Karanfil, Ozge. A Mathematical Model of Steady-state B Lymphopoiesis in Mouse and Rat Bone Marrow. 2009. View Publication.
  10. Karanfil O, Barlas Y. A Dynamic Simulator for the Management of Disorders of the Body Water Homeostasis. 2008; 1(56):1474-1492. View Publication.
  11. Finegood DT, Karanfil O, Matteson CL. Getting from analysis to action: framing obesity research, policy and practice with a solution-oriented complex systems lens. Healthc Pap. 2008; 9(1):36-41; discussion 62-67. PMID: 18974663.
    Citations: 9     Fields:    Translation:Humans
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Funded by the NIH National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences through its Clinical and Translational Science Awards Program, grant number UL1TR002541.